The method means the amount of receptions, funds, research procedures by the science of its subject. The method, on the other hand, represents a combination of already having knowledge in science. Under private methods, the amount of interdisciplinary procedures used to accumulate and primary systematization of empirical material ("data") is understood. Therefore, sometimes they are also called "research techniques". To date, more than a thousand such techniques are known - from the simplest (for example, observation) to sufficiently complex (as, for example, situational games, approaching one of the stages of system modeling, the formation of a data bank, building multidimensional scales, drawing up simple (Check Lists) and complex (indices) indicators, construction of typologies (factor analysis q), etc. Consider more details of research methods that are more common in the theory of international relations:
1. The methods of study of international relations include, first of all, methods analysis of the situation. Analysis of the situation involves the use of the sum of the methods and procedures of the interdisciplinary nature used for the accumulation and primary systematization of the empirical material ("data"). The most common from analytical techniques: observation, study of documents, comparison:
Observation. The elements of this method are the subject of observation, the object and means of observation. There are various types of observations. So, for example, direct observation, in contrast to mediated (instrumental), does not imply the use of any technical equipment or tools (television, radio, etc.). It is an external (similar to that, for example, diplomats, journalists, or special correspondents in foreign countries) and included (when an observer is a direct participant in a particular international event: diplomatic negotiations, a joint project or armed conflict). In turn, direct observation differs from indirect, which is carried out on the basis of information obtained by interviews, surveys, etc. In international relations, it is mainly possible indirect and instrumental observation. The main disadvantage of this method of data collection is a large role of subjective factors associated with the activity of the subject, its (or primary observers) ideological preferences, imperfection or deformation of observation means, etc.
Studying documents. With regard to international relations, it has the feature that the researcher often does not have free access to sources of objective information (as opposed, for example, from staff analysts or security workers). A large role in this is played by the representations of a particular regime on state secrets and security. The most accessible are official documents:
messages of press services of diplomatic and military departments, information on visits of statesmen, statutory documents and statements by the most influential intergovernmental organizations, declarations and communications of power structures, political parties and public associations, etc. At the same time, unofficial written and audiovisual sources are widely used, which may somehow help increase information on international life events: records of individuals, family archives, unpublished diaries. Great importance Memories of direct participants of certain international events - wars, diplomatic negotiations, official visits can play. This applies to the forms of such memories - written or oral, direct or restored, etc. The so-called iconographic documents are played by a large role in the data collection: paintings, photos, movies, exhibitions, slogans. So, in the USSR, American Sovietologists paid great attention to the study of iconographic documents, such as reports from festive demonstrations and parades. The features of the design of the columns, the content of slogans and posters, the number and personal composition of officials present in the stands and, of course, the species of demonstrated military equipment and weapons are studied.
Comparison. According to B. Russet and X. Starre, in science about international relations It began to be applied only from the mid-60s, when the incessant growth in the number of states and other international actors made it and possible, and absolutely necessary. The main advantage of this method is that it aims to find a common, repeating in the sphere of international relations. The need to compare among themselves states and their individual features (territory, population, level of economic development, military potential, length of borders, etc.) stimulated the development of quantitative methods in the science of international relations, and in particular measurements. So, if there is a hypothesis that large states are more inclined to unleash the war than everyone else, then the need to measure the magnitude of states in order to determine which one is large, and how small and for what criteria. In addition, the "spatial", aspect of measurement, the need to measure "in time" appears, i.e. Clarification in a historical retrospective, what state of the state strengthens its "tendency" to war.
At the same time, the comparative analysis makes it possible to obtain scientific and significant conclusions and on the basis of the nurses of phenomena and the uniqueness of the situation. Thus, comparing the iconographic documents (in particular, photo and newsreel), reflecting the departure of French soldiers in the current army in 1914 and in 1939, M. Ferro discovered an impressive difference in their behavior. Smiles, dances, the atmosphere of universal vacation, who reigned at the East Paris station in 1914, sharply contrasted with the picture of the despondency, hopelessness, explicitly reluctance to go to the front observed at the same station in 1939. In this regard, a hypothesis was put forward, according to which one of the explanations of the contrast described above should be the fact that in 1914, unlike 1939, there was no doubt about who is the enemy. It was known and identified.
2. The experimental methods of studying international relations are the experimental methods. The most common ones are methods such as content analysis, an event analysis, a cognitive mapping method.
Content analysis In political sciences was first applied by the American researcher in Lassueal and its employees when studying the propaganda orientation of political texts. In very general This method can be represented as a systematic study of the content of written or oral text with fixation of the most frequently repeated phrases or plots in it. Next, the frequency of these phrases or scenes is compared with their frequency in other written or oral messages known as neutral, based on which the conclusion is made to the political focus of the content of the text under study. The degree of rigor and the operationality of the method depends on the correctness of the separation of primary analysis units (terms, phrases, semantic blocks, themes, etc.) and units of measurement (for example, word, phrase, section, page, etc.).
Event analysis (or Analysis of the event data) is aimed at handling public information showing, "Who speaks or does that, in relation to whom and when." Systematization and processing of relevant data are carried out on the following features: 1) the initiator entity (who); 2) the plot (what); 3) the target entity (in relation to whom) and 4) the date of the event. Events systematized in this way are reduced to matrix tables, are ranked and measured using computers. The effectiveness of this method involves the presence of a significant data bank.
Cognitive mapping. This method is aimed at analyzing how one or another political figure perceives a certain political problem. American scientists R. Snyder, X. Brooke and B. Sepin back in 1954 showed that the decision-making decisions can lie not only, and even not so much reality that surrounds them, how much how they perceive it. In 1976, R. Jerwis in the work "Perception and Invalid Perception (Misperception) in international politics" showed that in addition to emotional factors, cognitive factors have influenced by one or another leader. From this point of view, the information is absorbed and ordered by it "with the amendment" on their own views on the outside world. From here - the tendency to underestimate any information that contradicts their system of values \u200b\u200band the formation of an enemy, or, on the contrary, to attach to insignificant events exaggerated. Analysis of cognitive factors makes it possible to understand, for example, that relative constant foreign Policy States are explained, along with other reasons, and the constancy of the relevant leaders.
The cognitive mapping method solves the problem of identifying the basic concepts that operates policies and finding the causes of causal relations between them. The method is aimed at analyzing how one or another political figure perceives a certain political problem. As a result, the researcher receives a map-scheme, on which, on the basis of the study of speeches and speeches of a political figure, its perception of a political situation or individual problems in it reflects.
Experiment - Creating an artificial situation in order to verify theoretical hypotheses, conclusions and regulations. In social sciences, such a type of experiment as imitation games is distributed. There are two types of simulation games a) without the use of electronic computers b) with its use an example of the game - imitation of interstate conflict. The government of the country is afraid of aggression from the Government of the Country B. To understand how events will develop in the event of the Country attack, the confonst imitation game is carried out, an example of which a military-boat game can be in the USSR on the eve of the attacks of fascist Germany.
3. The third group of research includes prognostic methods. In the research practice of international relations there are both relatively simple and more complex prognostic methods. Methods such as, for example, conclusions, by analogy, the simple extrapolation method, the Dolphic method, the construction of scripts, etc. can be assigned to the first group. The second is the analysis of determinants and variables, systemic approach, modeling, analysis of chronological series (ARIMA), spectral analysis, computer simulation, etc.
Delphian method - means discussing the problem with several expert groups. For example, military experts based on intelligence data make their assessments of a international event and present their opinion to political analysts. Those conduct a generalization and systematization of incoming data on the basis of primarily not from military criteria, but political, after which they again return their conclusions to military experts, who already finally analyze the assessments of political analysts and produce their recommendations to military and political leadership. Taking into account the generalization of experts or make amendments to their initial assessments, or strengthen in their opinion and continue to insist on it. Accordingly, the final assessment is produced, and practical recommendations are given.
Building scenarios. This method is to build ideal (ie, thinking) models of the likely development of events. Based on the analysis of the existing situation, hypotheses are put forward, - representing simple assumptions and not subjected to any inspection in this case - about its further evolution and consequences. At the first stage, the analysis and selection of the main factors determining, according to the researcher, the further development of the situation is made. The number of such factors should not be excessive (as a rule, allocate no more than six elements), in order to ensure a holistic vision of the entire set of future options arising from them. At the second stage, hypotheses on the estimated phases of the evolution of selected factors over the next 10, 15 and 20 years are put on (based on a simple "common sense"). In the third stage, a comparison of the selected factors is made and they are based on and more or less detail described by the hypotheses (scenarios) corresponding to each of them. At the same time, the consequences of interactions between the dedicated factors and the imaginary options for their development are taken into account. Finally, at the fourth stage, an attempt is made to create indicators of the relative probability of the scenarios described above, which for this purpose are classified (completely arbitrarily) by their degree of probability.
Systems approach. This approach makes it possible to submit an object of study in its unity and integrity, contributing to the connection between the interacting elements, helps identify the rules, the patterns of such interaction. R. Aron allocates three levels of consideration of international (interstate) relations: the level of the interstate system, the level of the state and the level of its power (potential). J. Rosenau offers six levels of analysis: individuals - "Creators" of politicians and their characteristics; posted posts and roles; The structure of the government in which they act; society in which they live and manage; system of relations between the national state and other participants in international relations; World system. Some domestic researchers consider the starting point of system analysis three levels of system study: the level of its elements; the level of the internal structure, the set of relationships between the elements; The level of the external environment, its relationship with the system as one.
Modeling. Currently, it is widely used to build possible scenarios for developing situations and identify strategic tasks. The modeling method is associated with the construction of abstract objects, situations representing systems, elements and relationships of which correspond to elements and relations of real international phenomena and processes. Moreover, modern approaches to the study of historical and social phenomena increasingly involve methods of mathematical modeling to assess the prospects for the development of the system. When modeling international relations, they need to be defined as an object of system analysis, since modeling itself is part of the system analysis, which solves more specific tasks, representing a combination of practical techniques, techniques, methods, procedures, due to which in the study of the object (in this case - International relations) is made a certain streamline. Any methods of system analysis are based on a mathematical description of certain facts, phenomena, processes. Using the word "model", always mean some description, reflecting precisely those features of the studied process that are interested in the researcher. Building a mathematical model is the basis of the entire system analysis. This is the central stage of research or design of any system.
4. Analysis of the decision-making process (PPR) is a dynamic measurement of systemic analysis of international policies. The PPR is the "filter", through which the set of factors, the foreign policy "sifted" by the face (persons), which makes the decision (LPR). The analysis includes two main stages of the study. At the first stage, the main persons decisive are determined (head of state, ministers, etc.), the role of each of them is described. At the next stage, an analysis of the political preferences of the LPR, taking into account their worldview, experience, political views, guidance style, etc.
F. Boryar and M. R. Jalili, summarizing the methods of analyzing the PPR, allocate four main approaches:
1. Model of rational selection, in which decisions are made by a single and rationally thinking leader based on national Interest. It is assumed that: a) the decision maker acts taking into account the integrity and hierarchy of the values, which it has a rather sustainable performance; b) it systematically monitors the possible consequences of its choice; c) PPR is open to any new information capable of affecting the solution.
2. The presentation is adopted under the influence of the combination of government structures. It turns out to be broken into separate fragments, not fully considering the consequences of the choice due to the fragmentation of government structures, differences in the degree of influence and authority, etc.
3. The presentation is presented as a result of bargaining, a complex game between members of the bureaucratic hierarchy, government apparatus, etc., each representative of whom has its own interests, their positions, their ideas about the priorities of the state's foreign policy.
4. Actings are accepted by the LPR being in a complex environment and placing incomplete, limited information. In addition, they are not able to estimate the consequences of a choice. In such an environment, they have to dismember the problems, reducing the information used to a small number of variables.
In the analysis of the PPR, the researcher must avoid the temptation to use one or another of the specified approaches "in its pure form". In real life, the processes vary in a wide variety of combinations.
One of the common PPR methods is associated with the theory of games, the theory of decision-making in a particular social context, where the concept of "game" applies to all types of human activity. It is based on probability theory and is the design of the analysis models or predicting various types of behavior of actors in special situations. Canadian specialist in sociology of international relations J.-P. Derryennik considers the theory of games as the theory of decision-making in a risk situation. In the theory of games, therefore, the behavior of the LPR in their mutual relations associated with the persecution of the same goal is analyzed. In this case, the task is to find the best of possible options solutions. The theory of games shows that the number of situations in which players may turn out to be the final. There are games with different number of players: one, two or many. The theory of games allows us to calculate the most rational way of behavior in various types of circumstances.
But it would be mistaken to exaggerate its importance as a practical method to develop strategy and tactics of behavior on the world arena, where mutual obligations and agreements exist, and there is also the possibility of communication between the participants - even in the period of the most intense conflicts.
Of course, the best result is achieved with the integrated use of various methods and techniques of research.
6. "Large disputes"
Various approaches to the study of international relations that led to the formation of numerous paradigms led to acute theoretical disputes. In international political science, it is customary to allocate three such discussions.
First discussion Arises in 1939 due to the release of the book of the English scientist Edward Carr "twenty years of crisis." In it, the main provisions of the idealistic paradigm were criticized from the standpoint of political realism. The dispute was concerned with key issues of international political science (actors and nature of international relations, goals and means, processes and future). Realists Hans Morgentau and his supporters after World War II initiated the continuation of this discussion.
The second "big dispute" It was started in the 50s of the twentieth century. and acquired a special heat in the 60s when modernists (behaviorists), supporters of new approaches and methods for studying international relations, were sharply criticized by the postulates of political realism for commitment to traditional methods, mainly on intuition, historical analogies and theoretical interpretation. Scientists of the new generation (Queens Wright, Morton Kaplan, Karl Doych, David Singer, Kalevoli Canvas, Ernst Haas, etc.) called upon to overcome the shortcomings of a classical approach and to learn international relations with a truly scientific status. They made the use of scientific tools, methods and techniques borrowed from the exact sciences. Hence, they have increased attention to the use of mathematics, formalization tools, to modeling, collecting and processing data, to empirical verification of results, as well as other research procedures borrowed from accurate disciplines. Thus, the "modernists" actually focused on the methodological side of science. The "second dispute" did not carry a paradigmatic nature: "modernists" were actually not questioned the theoretical positions of their opponents, largely divided them, although they used other methods and other languages \u200b\u200bin their justification. The second "big dispute" marked the stage of searching for his own empirical methods, methodologies and techniques for the study of its object and / or borrowing to this end methods, methods and techniques of other sciences with their subsequent rethinking and modification to solve their own tasks. But the realistic paradigm of international relations remained overall uncovered. That is why, despite the externally irreconcilable tone, this controversy, in essence, did not have a special continuation: ultimately, the parties came to the actual agreement on the need for a combination and mutual complementarity of various "traditional" and "scientific" methods, although such a "reconciliation" and It can be attributed to greater extent to "traditionalists" than to "positivists".
But, nevertheless, modernism has enriched international political science not only by new applied techniques, but also very significant provisions. Having made individual state structures that influence the process of international political decisions and interstate interactions, and moreover, in the scope of analysis non-state educationModernism attracted the attention of the scientific community to the problem of the international actor. He showed the importance of non-state participants in international relations.
However, after was the reaction to the shortcomings of traditional methods in the theory of political realism, modernism did not become any uniform flow. Common for its currents, mainly, is a commitment to an interdisciplinary approach, the desire to apply strict scientific methods and procedures, to an increase in the number of verifiable empirical data. Its disadvantages consist in the actual denial of the specifics of international relations, fragmentation of specific research facilities that causes the actual absence of a holistic picture of international relations, in the inability to avoid subjectivism.
In the center third "big dispute"In the late 1970s - early 1980s, it turned out to be the role of the state as a participant in international relations, the significance of national interest and strength to understand the essence of what is happening on the world stage. Supporters of various theoretical currents, which can be called "transnationalists" (Robert O. Kokhan, Joseph Naj, Yel Ferguson, John Gruce, Robert Mansbach, etc.), continuing the tradition of integration theory (David Mitran) and interdependence (Ernst Haas, David Moores ), put forward a common idea, according to which political realism and his ethnic paradigm peculiar to him do not comply with the nature and main trends of international relations and therefore should be discarded. International relations are far beyond the framework of interstate interactions based on national interest and power confrontation. The state as an international actor is deprived of his monopoly. In addition to states, individuals, enterprises, organizations, other non-governmental associations participate in international relations. The diversity of participants, types of interaction (cultural and scientific cooperation, economic exchanges, etc.) and its "channels" (partnerships between universities, religious organizations, earthly and associations, etc.) displaces the state from the Center for International Communication, contribute Transformation of such communication from intergovernmental transnational (implemented in addition to both and without the participation of states).
Proponents of transnationalism are often inclined to consider the sphere of transnational relations as a kind of international society, to which the same methods are applied to the analysis, which make it possible to understand and explain the processes occurring in any public organism. Transnationalism contributed to the awareness of a number of new phenomena in international relations, so many provisions of this flow continue to develop by his supporters. At the same time, his undoubted ideological relationship with classical idealism was imposed on him with his classical idealism with a proposal inherent in the proposal in changing the nature of international relations.
The third dispute touched one of the most important postulates of the realistic paradigm - about the central role of the state as an international actor (including the meaning of the great powers, national interests, the balance of power, etc.). The meaning of this dispute in the light of the changes that occurred in the world during the discharge of tensions in relations between the main parties of the bipolar world, goes beyond the differences in analytical approaches, gives impetus to the emergence of new approaches, theories and even paradigs. Its participants are reviewing both theoretical arsenal and research approaches and analytical methods. Under its impact in international political science, new concepts arise as, for example, the concept of globalization, which bears the indisputable influence of transnationalism.
For the study of international relations, most of the general scientific methods and techniques enjoyed in studies of other public phenomena are used. At the same time, there are also special, special methodological approaches due to the analysis of international relations, due to the fact that global political processes have their specificity, differ from political processes unfolding within the framework of individual states.
A significant place in the study of world politics and international relations belongs to the observation method. First of all, we see, and then we estimate the events taking place in the field of international politics. Recently, specialists are increasingly resorting to instrumental observation, which is carried out using technical means. For example, the most important phenomena of international life, such as meeting leaders of states, international conferences, activities international organizations, international conflictsNegotiations on their settlement, we can observe in recording on a video film, in television transmissions.
Interesting material for analysis gives the included observation, i.e. Observation that direct participants in events or persons who are inside the structures under study are conducted. The result of such observations are memoirs of well-known politicians and diplomats, allowing to obtain information on international relations, analyze it, draw the conclusions of theoretical and applied nature. Memoirs are the most important source for studying the history of international relations.
More fundamental and informative analytical studies made on the basis of their own diplomatic and political experience. These include, for example, the works of the famous American politician Henry Kissinger, who occupied the responsible posts in the US administration in the 1970s and 1980s.
Important information about the foreign policy of states, on the motives of the adoption of foreign policy decisions in a particular international situation, be obtained by studying the relevant documents. The method of studying documents plays the greatest role in the study of the history of international relations, but to study current, current issues of international policies, it has limitations. The case is that information on foreign policy and international relations often refers to the sphere of state secrets and documents containing similar information, available to a limited circle of persons, especially if we are talking About documents and materials foreign state. Working with most such documents becomes possible only after time, often after dozens of years, i.e. Then, when they are of interest mainly for historians.
If available documents do not allow adequate to evaluate intentions, goals, predict possible solutions and the actions of the participants of the foreign policy process, specialists can use content analysis (analysis of content). This is called the method of analyzing and evaluating texts developed by American sociologists and used in 1939-1940. To analyze the speeches of the heads of Nazi Germany, reflected in the press and radio tracking. With incredible accuracy, American experts predicted the time of attacking the USSR, the place and procedure for conducting many military operations, the secret ideological attitudes of the German fascism were revealed.
The content analysis method was used by US special institutions for intelligence purposes. Only in the late 1950s, he began to apply widely and acquired the status of the study methodology of public events.
When conducting content analysis in the text of the document, articles, books are allocated some key concepts or semantic units, followed by the counting frequency of these units in relation to each other, as well as with a total information. In the international political process, such a unit is a foreign policy idea, significant topic or value, political event or face, i.e. Key concepts from foreign policy life. In the text, it can be expressed in one word or a stable combination of words. Content analysis allows us to conclude possible foreign policy solutions and actions of those international actors that have become an object of research. Today, a limited circle of professionals uses more complex methods of content analysis.
In the study of international relations, the application and method of event analysis (an analysis of events) is based on tracking the dynamics of events in the international arena in order to determine the main trends in the development of the political situation in individual countries, regions and in the world as a whole.
American researcher E. Azar applied an event analysis. Considering international conflicts based on a collectible data bank, which included about half a million events that occurred for thirty years and to one degree or another of 135 states, he made interesting conclusions about the mechanisms for the development of conflict situations and the laws of political behavior in international conflict. As foreign studies show, with the help of an event analysis, international negotiations can be successfully studied. In this case, the dynamics of the behavior of the participants in the negotiation process, the intensity of the nomination of proposals, the dynamics of mutual concessions, etc.
In the 50s and 19th year of the XX century. Within the framework of the modernist destination, methodological approaches borrowed from other social phrases began to study international relations. In particular, the cognitive mapping method was primarily tested in the framework of cognitive psychology - one of the directions of modern psychological science. Cognitive psychologists explore the features and dynamics of the formation of the knowledge and representations of a person about the world around him. On the basis of this, the personality behavior in various situations is explained and projected. The basic concept in the cognitive mapping methodology is a cognitive card, which is a graphic image of a person contained in the consciousness of a person, the preparation, processing and storage storage and component of a person's foundation about its past, present and possible future.
In studies of international relations, cognitive mapping is used to determine how one or another leader sees a political problem and, therefore, which solutions it can be adopted in a particular international situation. When drawing up a cognitive card, first identify the basic concepts that the political leader operates, then caused causal relations between them and further consider and assess the importance of these relations. The compiled cognitive map is subjected to additional analysis and conclusions are made about whether the leader is a priority internal or foreign policy for this leader, as far as universal moral values \u200b\u200bmeaningable to it, which is the ratio of positive and negative emotions in the perception of specific international political situations.
The lack of cognitive mapping lies in the complexity of this method, so in practice it is used infrequently.
Another method, first developed within the framework of other sciences, and then we found its use in the study of international relations, the modeling method was. This is a method of studying an object based on the design of a cognitive image, which has a formal similarity with the object itself and reflecting its quality. The system modeling method requires a researcher of special mathematical knowledge. An example of the modeling method can be a model of the prospects of world development of Forrester, comprising 114 interrelated equations. It should be noted that the passion for mathematical approaches does not always bring a positive result. This showed the experience of American and Western European political science. On the one hand, it is very difficult to express the essential characteristics of international processes and situations. mathematical language. Quality measure quantity. On the other hand, the results of cooperation of scientists representing different directions of science affects the weak knowledge of mathematical sciences by political scientists and no less weak political training of representatives of the exact sciences.
Nevertheless, the rapid development of information technologies and electronic computers is expanding the possibilities of using in the study of world politics and international relations of mathematical approaches and quantitative methods. Specific successes in this area have already been achieved in the 1960s and 1970s, for example, the creation of analytical models "Balance of Forces" and "Diplomatic Game". In the late 1960s, the Gasson search engine appeared, which was based on the information bank containing information on 27 international conflicts. Each such a local conflict was described using the same type of factors characteristic of three phases of its flow: pre-war, military, post-war. The first phase belonged to 119, to the second - 110, and to the third - 178 factors. In turn, all these factors were reduced to eleven categories. In each particular conflict, there was a presence or absence of relevant factors and the impact of this circumstance on the exacerbation or weakening of tensions in the relations of international actors drawn into a conflict situation. Each new conflict could be analyzed on the basis of these factors and by analogy to find a similar conflict situation. This similarity allowed predicted relative to possible scenarios for developing events in a new conflict. It should be noted that the prognostic methods of research of international relations in modern conditions are very important.
For the study of international relations, most of the general scientific methods and techniques enjoyed in studies of other public phenomena are used. At the same time, for analyzing international relations, there are also special methodological approaches due to the specifics of political processes that differ from the political processes unfolding within the framework of individual states.
A significant place in the study of world politics and international relations belongs to the observation method. First of all, we see, and then we estimate the events taking place in the field of international politics. Recently, specialists are increasingly resorting to instrumental observationwhich is carried out using technical means. For example, the most important phenomena of international life, such as meetings of the leaders of states, international conferences, activities of international organizations, international conflicts, negotiations on their settlement, we can observe in records (on a video film) in television transmissions.
Interesting material for analysis gives included observation,i.e. observation, which is directly involved in the events or persons who are inside the structures studied. The result of such observations are memoirs of well-known politicians and diplomats, allowing to obtain information on international relations, to draw conclusions of theoretical and applied nature. Memoirs are the most important source for studying the history of international relations. More fundamental and informative analytical studies,made on the basis of their own diplomatic and political experience.
Important information about the foreign policy of states, on the motives of the adoption of foreign policy solutions can be obtained by studying the relevant documents. Method of studying documentsit plays the greatest role in the study of the history of international relations, but to study current, current issues of international policies is limited. The fact is that information on foreign policy and international relations often relates to the sphere of state secrets and documents contained similar information are available to a limited circle of persons.
If available documents do not allow to adequately evaluate the intentions, goals, predict the possible actions of the participants of the foreign policy process, specialists can apply content analysis (content analysis).So called the method of analyzing and evaluating texts. This method was developed by American sociologists and was used in 1939-1940. To analyze the speeches of the heads of Nazi Germany in order to predict their actions. The content analysis method was used by US special institutions for intelligence purposes. Only in the late 1950s. It began to apply widely and acquired the status of a study methodology for public phenomena.
The study of international relations finds the application and method of event analysis (analysis of events),based on which - tracking the dynamics of events in the international arena in order to determine the main trends in the development of the political situation in countries, regions and in the world as a whole. As foreign studies show, with the help of an event analysis, international negotiations can be successfully studied. In this case, the focus is on the dynamics of the behavior of participants in the negotiation process, the intensity of the proposals, the dynamics of mutual concessions, etc.
In the 50-60s. XX century As part of the modernist destination, methodological approaches borrowed from other socio-humanities have become widely used to study international relations. In particular, cognitive mapping methodinitially, was tested under cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychologists explore the features and dynamics of the formation of the knowledge and representations of a person about the world around him. On the basis of this, the personality behavior in various situations is explained and projected. The basic concept in the cognitive mapping methodology is a cognitive card, which is a graphic image of a person contained in the consciousness of a person, the preparation, processing and storage storage and component of a person's foundation about its past, present and possible future. In the studies of international relations, cognitive mapping is used to determine how one or another leader sees a political problem and, therefore, which solutions it can be accepted in a certain international situation. The lack of cognitive mapping is the complexity of this method, so it is rare in practice.
Another method developed in the framework of other sciences, and then we found the application in the study of international relations, became method of system modeling.This is a method of studying an object based on the design of a cognitive image, which has a formal similarity with the object itself and reflecting its quality. The system modeling method requires a researcher of special mathematical knowledge. It should be noted that the passion for mathematical approaches does not always give a positive effect. This showed the experience of American and Western European political science. Nevertheless, the rapid development of information technology is expanding the possibilities of using mathematical approaches and quantitative methods in the study of world politics and international relations.
Development of the system of international relations in the 19th century.
The problem of the method is one of the most important problems of any science, because it teaches how to apply new knowledge in practical activity, how to allocate different levels of analysis, distinguishing the installation of individual paradigms from the methodological principles and choose methods for processing incoming information. At the same time, the procedure for applying research methods is based on knowledge of obtaining information methods, and compliance with technology allows you to achieve the most accurate results.
Method(from Dr. Greek. metodos - The path of research or knowledge, theory, teaching) is a way of a theoretical or practical research.
The method involves a "well-known sequence of actions based on a clearly conscious articulated and controlled ideal plan in the most different types cognitive and practical activity. The implementation of activities on the basis of one or another method involves the conscious correlation of the methods of action of the subjects of this activity (in our case - actors of international relations. - Ed.)\u003ewith a real situation (international situation), an assessment of their effectiveness, critical analysis and a selection of various alternatives "1.
Methodological approaches to the analysis of modern international relations are built around three aspects:
- separation of research position from moral and value judgments or personal views;
- the use of analytical techniques and procedures that are common to all social sciences;
- Systematization, development of common approaches and building models that facilitate the opening of laws.
World science on international relations from the middle of the XX century. Uses the methods of sociology, psychology, formal logic, as well as natural and mathematical sciences. Analytical concepts are developing, research through a comparison of data used to predict international relations. But it does not displace classic methods and concepts.
Applicationhistorical and Sociological Method R. Arone has been demonstrated to international relations and its prognostic capabilities, which allocates four levels of study of international relations in the fundamental plan (Fig. 1.5).
Fig. 1.5.
Applying your research approach international system, R. Aron was able to predetermine a large number of Coming changes in world politics, starting with the collapse of the communist ideology, the transition to the post-industrial society and ending with the change in the value of sovereignty in national states. The prognostic capabilities of this method are still not subjected to revision and lead to its use in the theoretical analysis of international realities.
New opportunities in analyzing international relations opens up the use of quantitative methods.
Quantitative methods include a set of mathematical and statistical methods used to analyze data. The basis of quantitative research techniques always lies with strict statistical models, large samples are used. This makes it possible not to simply get opinions and assumptions, but to find out the exact quantitative (numeric) values \u200b\u200bof the indicators under study. Examples can serve data of nationwide censuses, election results (electoral activity of the population). By certain statistical indicators (for example, GDP per capita, the level of development of democracy, "indices of peace and military", etc.) The countries of the world can be irregularities and grouped. Analysis of the international situation using quantitative methods has features and systematic traits.
However, Morgentau, pointing to the insufficiency of quantitative methods, argues that they cannot qualify for a universality. It clearly separates the political effect from the rest of the spheres of human life and concludes that morality is in contradiction with the behavior of states on the world arena, and only qualitative analysis is able to form a real idea of \u200b\u200bthe nature of the power relations 1.
American scientist Charles McCleland (Charles McClelland) proposed event analysis (from English, eVENT - Event) as a method of political research. The basic characteristics of the grouping of events of state life were borrowed from the communication theory of Lasswell parameters of political action:
- determination of a subject of action (who is the initiator);
- content of the political event;
- object (who is directed);
- Event time.
Another high-quality method is intent-aialysis(from English, intent - The intention, purpose) is the method of studying verbal information, which makes it possible to reconstruct the intentions (intentions, targets, orientation) speaker, allowing to determine the hidden meaning, the subtext of performances inaccessible with other forms of analysis. This method acquires a special meaning when analyzing public speeches, political statements, discussions of political leaders of various states.
Most common method obtaining primary information empirically acts observation. International studies implies two types of observation - included (carried out by direct participant of a certain international event) and instrumental (implemented through indirect observation of an event or object). Since now the representation of information in modern world Exponentially increasingly increases, track all events in the studied area is not easy even when using modern computer technologies, and all the possibilities of the observation are reduced. Therefore, in the Arsenal of the Ontrian Research, the main way of obtaining information is toolkit through television broadcasting, information transmission over the Internet, both official and unofficial (example is Vikilix website ( Wikileaks.), publishing closed information diplomatic nature).
Method of studying documents - a kind of instrumental observation method associated with a limited number of information at the disposal of a specialist, since only part of official materials fall into public access. At the same time, the study of documents is fundamentally important and, as a rule, the basic method for establishing the true intentions of international actors and existing trends. The possibilities of this method are expanded by improving private techniques, for example, due to the evolution of content analysis. There is an increase in accessibility for the general public closed information due to the distribution of network technologies.
Content analysis (from English, content - The content, contents) is a type of method for analyzing documents related to the possibility of transferring mass text (qualitative) information into quantitative indicators with subsequent statistical processing. Of particular importance, the method of analyzing documents acquires when solving the tasks of collecting, processing and analyzing publications (reports) in the media on the Gem or other relevant issues of international life. The emergence of such a kind of study of documents, as a content analysis, is associated with the name of the American Polystologist Harold Duight Lassuell ( HAROLD DWIGHT LASSWELL),
who first involved it when studying the spectors of political leaders, educational and scientific literature Germany 1920-1940s. And then Soviet Union.
Systems approach As the method of knowledge formed in the middle of the XX century, when the scientific circulation included such concepts as the "system", "element", "link", "structure", "function", "stability" and "environment". The first most famous theorists who applied the system approach were American scientists David Easton (David Easton) And Tolkott Parsons (Such Parsons).
The systematic approach allows you to fix changes in international relations and find links with the evolution of the international system, identify determinants affecting the behavior of states. Systemic modeling gives science on international relations the possibility of theoretical experimentation, as well as the integrated application of applied methods in their diverse combination to predict the development of international relations.
Within the framework of the systemic approach, the dynamic measurement of international policies is an analysis of the decision-making process - a kind of "filter", through which factors affecting the external policies are "sifted" by the face (persons) by the decision. It should be remembered that, despite the growing integrity and interdependence of the world, the increasing integration of states and cultures, international relations are still a sphere of conflict, colliding the interests of states. This has a significant impact on the decision-making process in world politics.
The foreign policy of the state is the activities of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (or the Relevant Office) in order to realize the interests of the state in international relations.
A classic approach to the analysis of decision-making process includes:
- 1) identifying the problem;
- 2) determining the purpose and choice of criteria, establishing significance ("weight") criteria;
- 3) selection of possible alternatives;
- 4) an assessment of alternatives according to the selected criterion;
- 5) Choosing the best alternative.
Swiss scientist Philipra Bryar (Felippe Bryar), summarizing the methods of analyzing the decision-making process, allocates four main approaches:
- 1) Model of rational choice - the choice of solutions is carried out by a single leader based on national interest, while the leader:
- - acts taking into account the hierarchy of values;
- - tracks the possible consequences of its choice;
- - open to any new information capable of affecting the decision;
- 2) fragmented model - The decision is made under the influence of government structures operating in accordance with the established procedures - the decision is divided into separate fragments, and government structures, due to the singularities of the selection of information, the complexity of mutual relations with each other, differences in the degree of influence and authority, etc. ., often impede the decision-making process;
- 3) game model - The decision is considered as a result of bargaining (complex game) between members of the bureaucratic hierarchy, government apparatus, etc. - Each representative has its own interests, its ideas about the priorities of the state's foreign policy;
- 4) unstable selection model - Face (Persons) The decision makes the decision are in a difficult environment and have incomplete, limited information - is not able to estimate the consequences of the choice.
Systemic analysis contributes to the creation of a theoretical basis for a more adequate understanding of the processes occurring in the field of international relations, the establishment of the direction of its transformation under the influence of globalization processes. The results of the analysis contribute to the development of forecasts and scenarios for the development of international phenomena and processes, the determination of the most likely and optimal variants of the foreign policy course of key entities of international relations, which makes it purposefully affecting the transformation of their structure, updating the most preferable direction for the current entity. That is, the knowledge and accounting of the patterns of functioning and development of international relations as the system makes it possible to most effectively direct and regulate these processes, ensuring their more harmonious combination.
